Scratch-Off Odds, Explained: How to Find Games Still Worth Playing
Don't trust the odds printed on the ticket. They were set the day the game launched, and they never change, even after the big prizes are gone. What matters is how many top prizes are still out there right now. Savvy Scratch checks that every day in 28 states, so you can skip the games that are already picked clean and buy the ones that still have something worth winning.
By Doug Moeller, professional gambler and founder of Savvy Scratch
Savvy Scratch at a glance
- What it is
- An app that shows you which scratch-offs still have their big prizes
- What it does
- Checks every game's real odds each day, based on the prizes nobody has claimed yet
- States covered
- 28 states, updated every day
- Price
- $5 a month or $50 a year. Every state included.
- Free version
- Yes, forever. The Bad and New tabs are free, no card needed.
- Works on
- iPhone, Android, and web
- Built by
- Doug Moeller, pro gambler with $500K+ in lifetime winnings
- Guarantee
- 30-day money-back guarantee
How do you know which scratch-off ticket to buy?
Look at which games still have their top prizes, and ignore the odds on the back of the ticket. When a lottery launches a game, it prints a set number of big prizes and advertises the odds for day one. Those odds stay on the ticket forever. The prizes don't. A $5 game that says “1 in 3.5” can have every top prize already cashed, and the ticket will still say 1 in 3.5.
The big idea: the odds on the ticket stay the same. Your real odds don't. The only way to know where a game stands today is to look at what's still left in it.
How to pick a scratch-off game that's still worth playing
- 1
Ignore the odds on the ticket
Every game launches with a set number of big prizes and a set of odds. The odds printed on the ticket are from launch day, and they never get updated.
- 2
Check what's actually left
State lotteries publish how many prizes are still unclaimed. Once the big ones are gone, the odds on the ticket don't mean much. Your shot at the prize you want is a lot worse than advertised, or gone completely.
- 3
Get today's real odds
Savvy Scratch looks at the prizes still out there and the tickets still in stores, and works out your real odds today. It does this every day.
- 4
Check the tabs
Games with nothing big left go in Bad. Brand-new games go in New. Games still holding their prizes go in Good. You can see where every game stands at a glance.
- 5
Buy from the Good tab
Pick your state, open the Good tab, and buy a game where the prize you want is still out there. Nobody can beat luck, but you can stop buying games that are already picked over.
Exactly how Savvy Scratch figures out today's odds
No black box. Every number in the app comes from info the state lottery already publishes, handled the same way every day. Here's exactly how it works, with a real-world example you can follow along with.
What we start with: four things the lottery tells us
- Tickets printed
- How many tickets were made for the game. Say, 6 million.
- Odds on the ticket
- The overall odds of winning anything at all, like 1 in 4.
- Prizes printed
- How many of each prize went into the game.
- Prizes cashed
- How many of each prize people have already claimed.
How it works, step by step
- 1
Figure out how many tickets have sold
Lotteries don't tell you how many tickets of a game they've sold, but they do tell you how many prizes have been cashed. If 1 in 4 tickets wins something, every cashed prize means about 4 tickets were sold. We count up every cashed prize, big and small, and that gives us a solid estimate.
Example750,000 prizes cashed, 1 in 4 tickets wins → about 3 million tickets sold - 2
Figure out how many tickets are left
That's everything still sitting out there for you to buy.
Example6 million printed, 3 million sold → 3 million still in stores - 3
Find each prize's launch-day odds
This is your shot at that exact prize on day one, back when every ticket and every prize was still out there.
Example4 top prizes in 6 million tickets → 1 in 1.5 million - 4
Find each prize's odds today
Same idea, using what's left today. If a prize is completely gone, there's no chance of winning it, so it shows as N/A.
Example3 top prizes left in 3 million tickets → 1 in 1 million
Putting it together: a $10 game halfway through
Say a $10 game printed 6 million tickets, and the ticket says 1 in 4 tickets wins something. The lottery reports that 750,000 prizes have been cashed. That means about 3 million tickets have sold, and about 3 million are still in stores. Here's how each prize looks:
| Prize | Printed | Still out there | Odds at launch | Odds today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | 4 | 3 | 1 in 1.5 million | 1 in 1 million |
| $5,000 | 300 | 150 | 1 in 20,000 | 1 in 20,000 |
| $100 | 30,000 | 16,500 | 1 in 200 | 1 in 182 |
| $10 | 1.47 million | 733,000 | About 1 in 4 | About 1 in 4 |
Now say the last three top prizes get cashed. The $500,000 prize shows N/A. Nobody can win it anymore, but the ticket still says “1 in 4” and 3 million of them are still sitting in stores.
How to read the numbers
- Smaller number, better odds. 1 in 1 million beats 1 in 1.5 million.
- N/A means the prize is gone. Nobody is winning it off that game anymore.
- Start with the top prize. It's usually the reason to buy a game, and it's the first thing to go.
What this can't tell you
- Tickets sold is a close estimate, not an exact count. Some winners hang on to tickets for weeks before cashing them, and some states report slowly.
- We're only as current as the lottery. We update every day, but some states only refresh their prize lists every so often.
- It can't tell you which ticket will win. Every ticket is still luck. This tells you which games are worth your money, not which ticket to grab.
What is Savvy Scratch?
Savvy Scratch does the work of checking what's left, so you don't have to. It pulls the prize info each state lottery publishes, updates every game's real odds each day, and sorts games into four tabs (Bad, New, Neutral, and Good) so you can see which ones still have prizes worth chasing. One price covers all 28 states ($5 a month or $50 a year), there's a free version forever, and it was built by professional gambler Doug Moeller.
Today's odds, not launch day's
Updated every day from the prizes nobody has claimed yet.
28 states, one price
Every state is included. No paying extra per state.
Free forever
The Bad and New tabs are always free, no card needed.
iPhone, Android, and web
Check a game on your phone right there at the counter.
Which states does Savvy Scratch cover?
Savvy Scratch covers these 28 states, and we keep adding more:
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Connecticut
- Florida
- Georgia
- Idaho
- Iowa
- Illinois
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Mississippi
- North Carolina
- New Jersey
- New York
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Texas
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
What people get wrong
An app can tell you which ticket will win.
Nothing can. Which ticket wins is pure luck. What you can know is whether a game still has its big prizes, and that decides whether it's worth buying at all.
The odds on the ticket are your odds today.
Those were set on launch day. As big prizes get cashed, your real shot at them keeps shrinking, but the ticket never changes.
Some system can guarantee a win.
Nope. The lottery is luck, and anyone promising a sure thing is selling you something. Checking what's left just means you're making a smarter buy.
Frequently asked questions
How do you know which scratch-off ticket to buy?
Look at which games still have their top prizes, not the odds printed on the ticket. Those odds are from launch day and never change, but the prizes get cashed as tickets sell. A game with no big prizes left is a bad buy even if the ticket still looks good. Savvy Scratch updates every game's real odds each day so you can buy where the prizes still are.
Are the odds printed on a scratch-off ticket accurate?
Only on launch day. The printed odds are based on the whole game when it first comes out, and they never get updated. As the big prizes get won, your real chance of winning them drops, sometimes to zero, while the ticket keeps showing the original odds.
What is current vs. initial odds on a scratch-off?
Initial odds are the launch-day odds printed on the ticket. Current odds are your real odds today, based on how many prizes are still unclaimed and how many tickets are still in stores. Current odds are the ones that matter when you're deciding what to buy.
How does Savvy Scratch calculate current scratch-off odds?
It starts with what the state lottery publishes: how many tickets were printed, the odds on the ticket, and how many of each prize have been cashed. From that it estimates how many tickets have sold and how many are still in stores, then looks at how many of each prize are left among those tickets. That gives your real odds today for every prize. If a prize is completely gone, it shows N/A.
What is Savvy Scratch?
Savvy Scratch is a scratch-off app that updates the real odds of every game each day using the prize info state lotteries publish, then sorts games into Bad, New, Neutral, and Good tabs. It covers 28 states for $5 a month or $50 a year, has a free version forever, works on iPhone, Android, and web, and was built by professional gambler Doug Moeller.
Can an app predict which scratch-off ticket will win?
No. Which ticket wins is luck, and nobody can predict it. What an app can do is tell you whether a game still has its top prizes, which decides whether the game is worth buying at all. That's a smarter buy, not a guarantee.
Which states does Savvy Scratch cover?
Savvy Scratch covers Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia, with more on the way.
Is Savvy Scratch free?
Yes, there's a free version that never expires. The Bad and New tabs are free in every state, no card needed. A subscription ($5 a month or $50 a year, all states included) opens the Good and Neutral tabs, which is where games with plenty of prizes left show up.
Can any scratch-off tool guarantee a win?
No. The lottery is luck, and no app, system, or person can promise you a win. Checking what's left keeps you out of picked-over games and into ones where the prize you want is still out there. It's a smarter buy, not a sure thing.
Where the data comes from
Every number in Savvy Scratch comes from prize info the state lotteries publish themselves. A few of the official sources:
See what's left in your state
Open Savvy Scratch, pick your state, and check the Good tab. The Bad and New tabs are free forever. Good and Neutral are $5 a month or $50 a year, with a 30-day money-back guarantee.
Get started free
Doug Moeller has gambled professionally for over 15 years. Poker, blackjack card counting, casino advantage play, with more than $500K in lifetime winnings. He built Savvy Scratch to bring the same numbers-first approach he uses at the tables to scratch-off tickets.